期刊信息
主办:内蒙古农业大学沙漠治理研究所
主管:内蒙古农业大学
ISSN:1003-7578
CN:15-1112/N
语言:中文
周期:月刊
影响因子:1.681818
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过去千年中国东部年代际百年尺度干湿变化特征(3)
【作者】网站采编
【关键词】
【摘要】To assess the possible causes of hydroclimate variability over eastern China in the PHYDA during the last millennium, we examine the Ni?o3.4 SST index, the AMO index, and the location of the ITCZ in s
To assess the possible causes of hydroclimate variability over eastern China in the PHYDA during the last millennium, we examine the Ni?o3.4 SST index, the AMO index, and the location of the ITCZ in summer ( Fig. 1 (b)). The comparison shows that the centennial dry—wet variation in the PHYDA after the 1350s is generally in better agreement with the AMO than the Ni?o3.4 SST index and the location of the ITCZ, with drier (wetter) conditions associated with the negative (positive) phase of the AMO. After the 1350s, the Pearson’s correlation coefficients are? 0.483 between the PDSI and the Ni?o3.4 SST index, 0.74 (significant at the 0.01 level) between the PDSI and AMO index, and ? 0.305 between the PDSI and the location of the ITCZ, indicating the linkage between the PDSI and AMO index on centennial time scales is more marked than that with ENSO and the location of the ITCZ. Previous works ( Man et al.,2012 ; Ottera et al., 2010 ) have revealed that both the North Atlantic SST and EASM precipitation show a strong low-frequency response to natural forcing, such as the varying solar activity. Conversely, the PHYDA shows that the solar forcing ( Schmidt and Jungclaus, 2012 ) probably has a minor agreement on the centennial scale with the AMO variability and PDSI variability over eastern China, with correlation coefficients of 0.294 between the solar forcing and the AMO and 0.288 between the solar forcing and the PDSI during the last millennium. This reflects a more coherent relationship between the AMO index and centennial variability of hydroclimate over eastern China. Meanwhile, during the MCA, the centennial hydroclimate changes in the PHYDA show more consistency with the location of the ITCZ.
Fig. 1. (a) Hydroclimatic changes over eastern China in the summer (JJA) PDSI index based on the PHYDA from Steiger et al. (2018) during the last millennium,in the composite EASM index based on the speleothem δ18O variations from Man (2012) during the last millennium, in the PDSI index based on the availability of the tree-ring based MADA from Cook et al. (2010) during the last 700 years, and in the DWI based on Chinese historical documents and instrumental measurements from Zheng et al. (2006) during the last millennium and from CNMA (1981) during the last 530 year. The anomaly of summer near-surface air temperature in the PHYDA of Steiger et al. (2018) during the last millennium is shown by the cyan curve. The severe decadal droughts identified in each record are shown by the yellow bars. The gray band shows the 5th to 95th percentile range. (b) Climate records from the PHYDA of hydroclimatic changes in the PDSI index over eastern China,climate indices of Ni?o3.4, AMO, and the location of the ITCZ over the Asian—Australian monsoon area during the last millennium, and the difference in total solar irradiance (TSI) from the value of 1360 W m?2since 1000 AD. The severe decadal droughts identified in the summer PDSI index of the PHYDA are shown as yellow bars. The 10-yr resolved standardized anomalies (black curve) are shown along with smoothed versions using a 100-yr FFT (red curve).
For the drought events, as shown by Fig. 1 (b), the PHYDA suggests El Ni?o—like mean states were sustained through most of the events —for example, the droughts of 1105—55 AD, 1352—90 AD, 1580—94 AD, and 1626—65 AD, which overlap with the droughts identified in the DWI,and the droughts that occurred during the 18th and 19th centuries. The PHYDA reveals that these droughts also coincide with the negative AMO state and the northward displacement of the ITCZ, except that there is an AMO neutral state during the drought of 1105—55 AD and there is little change in the ITCZ location during the drought of 1580—94 AD. The relationship between the drought of 1445—98 AD and SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific is complex. During the early phase of this drought, sustained La Ni?a—like conditions can be seen. We note that, during this period, two large Kuwae volcanic eruptions occurred, and both eruptions injected sulfur gases into the stratosphere with probable impacts on the global climate ( Cole-Dai and Ferris, 2013 ). The Kuwae eruption that took place in late 1452 AD or early 1453 AD was the largest stratospheric sulfate event during the last 700 years ( Gao et al., 2006 ). According to research by Ning et al. (2017) , significantly lower EASM precipitation and a robust La Ni?a response to large tropical eruptions on the interdecadal time scale could be observed during the last 110 years because of amplification through the negative AMO state caused by the large volcanic eruptions. Fig. 1 (b) shows that a negative AMO state coinciding with a robust La Ni?a and a northward displacement of the ITCZ can be observed during this period, indicating volcanic eruption may have played a role in the early phase of this event in the PHYDA. The influence of these two volcanic eruptions on hydroclimate over eastern China can also be observed in the tree-ring and stalagmite records ( Fig. 1 (a)).However, it could not be observed in the DWI from Zheng et al. (2006) .A shift toward El Ni?o—like conditions and a northward ITCZ shift since the 1480s coincide with more severe drought conditions since the 1480s in the drought of 1445—98 AD. The states of El Ni?o—like conditions and a northward ITCZ in the drought of 1445—98 AD after 1484 AD are similar to the conditions shown in the droughts of 1352—90 AD and 1626—65 AD, as well as the droughts that occurred during the 18th and 19th centuries. This indicates that the drought conditions from 1484 AD to 1498 AD were related to the El Ni?o—like conditions during this period. These drought conditions in the PHYDA linked to the El Ni?o overlap with the drought of 1479—96 AD identified in the DWI. The drought of 1580—94 AD, which also overlaps with the droughts identified in the DWI, occurred in active periods of La Ni?a—like mean states and negative AMO states. The states of these two climate indices in the drought of 1580—94 AD are similar to the conditions shown in the early phase of the drought from 1445 AD to 1498 AD. However, there is little change in the ITCZ location during this drought and no large eruptions have been detected in Antarctic ice-core records during the period of this drought ( Gao et al.,2008 ).
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